Arctic Climate Emergency

SCIENCE

New Research

2014 Methane on the Rise—Again E. Nisbet, E Dlugokencky

2014 Sept NASA Arctic climate models - inadequate data.

Arctic feedbacks

The Arctic is the source catastrophically dangerous feed back loops, but these are all missing from the climate science projections of the incorrectly so called ‘most likely’ global temperature increases and are missing from the IPCC mitigation calculations. We insist that climate science must include these feedbacks qualitatively and (in the most risk averse) quantitatively.

Global warming published science is maily science based on computer model projecting. The extent to which the temperature increases as the concentrations of atmsopheric greenhouse gases increase is called the climate sensitivity and all the modeling depends on this number. Climate science is very much the science of feedbacks. The linear climate models cannot deal with sudden large positive feedbacks, because only one number for the climate sensitivty is used. The fact is that climate sensivity in the situation of continuous atmospherioc GHG emissions is a dynamic increase- it increases with time (duration of warming) and with temperature increase.

These models are still being developed and do not deal well with carbon cycle effects caused by temperature increases and atmospheric CO2 increases.

The Arctic is composed of interacting physical and biological systems- the ecosystems. The computer models are based on the physical systems. They have been proved to in error by many decades in projecting the rate of summer sea ice loss from global warming- a physical systems process. The models do not include the far more complex biological systems.

The climate change computer are experiments. The computer runs that produce the projections are called 'experiments'. The computer programming at the various climate science centers that are developed from advanced mathematics are different and give different results. But they are as good as the data that produces and there is a huge problem. The natural sciences of observing the Earth systems do not have enough reliable data for the computer models to be reliable.

Global warming published science is based on the computer model projecting results of global temperature increases caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.The extent to which the temperature increases as the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase is called the climate sensitivity and all the modeling depends on this number.

Climate science is very much the science of feedbacks. The linear climate models cannot deal with sudden large positive feedbacks, because only one number for the climate sensitivity is used. The fact is that climate sensitivity in the situation of continuous atmospheric GHG is dynamic - it increases with time (of warming) and with temperature increase. These computer climate model programs are still being developed and do not deal well with carbon cycle effects caused by temperature increases and atmospheric CO2 increases.

Arguably the most complete model in the world is the MIT Integrated global system model. The model gives the highest global temperature increase from GHG forcing to 2100. It does not however include the large Arctic feedbacks. The basic real world science of climate change in the biosphere is all about the large number of large positive feedbacks. The largest carbon feedbacks (in terms of accelerating global warming more) are from warming peat lands (Arctic and tropical), thawing permafrost and ocean methane hydrates. Models do not include the effect of the rapid meltdown of the Arctic sea ice.The basic real world science of climate change in the biosphere is all about the large number of large positive feedbacks. The largest carbon feedbacks (in terms of accelerating global warming more) are from warming peat lands (Arctic and tropical), thawing permafrost and ocean methane hydrates. Models do not include the effect of the rapid meltdown of the Arctic sea ice.