Arctic Climate Emergency

 

 

Arctic methane workshop, Chiswick, 15-16 October

 

SCIENCE

Paul_CMOS_presentation_arctic_cc_Jan23_2011

The latest published science says that that positive feedback situation in the Arctic has put the world beyond dangerous climate change. This is itself is not new- James Holdren has been explaining since 2006 that the world was beyond dangerous interference with the climate system and at risk of climate catastrophe. In 2007 James Hansen and others published that the Earth was in imminent peril. Arctic researchers, Carlos Duarte and Peter Wadhams, in a Nature article assert  The Arctic is already suffering the effects of a dangerous climate change.

 

Professor Carlos Duarte, of the  University of Western Australia, also  published in the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences January 2012 says human kind is set to face dire consequences as signs of climate change manifest in the Arctic. He says the region is approaching “a series of ‘tipping points’” that could trigger a domino effect of climate change on Earth.

 

The latest published science says that positive feedback situation in the Arctic has put the world beyond dangerous climate change. This is itself is not new- James Holdren has been explaining since 2006 that the world was beyond dangerous interference with the climate system and at risk of climate catastrophe. In 2007 James Hansen and others published that the Earth was in imminent peril. Arctic researchers, Carlos Duarte and Peter Wadhams, in a Nature article assert  The Arctic is already suffering the effects of a dangerous climate change.

 

Crucial Arctic science missing

 

The greatest danger to human survival and to civilization is from Arctic sea ice and methane catastrophically dangerous positive feed back loops, but these are all missing from the climate science projections of the incorrectly so called  ‘most likely’ global temperature increases and are missing from the IPCC mitigation calculations. Climate science must include these feedbacks.

 

Global warming published science- is mainly science based on computer model projecting. These models are still being developed. They have huge ranges of results, and do not deal well with carbon cycle effects caused by temperature increases and atmospheric CO2  increases.

 

The basic science of climate change science is all about the large number of large positive feedbacks.  

 

The largest carbon feedbacks (in terms of accelerating global warming more) are from warming peatlands (Arctic and tropical),  thawing permafrost and ocean methane hydrates. The IPCC does not inlude the effect of carbon feedbacks warming in its global temperature projections.

 

The science   IPCC assessment AR4 2007

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  • surface albedo is projected to decrease and the exchange of greenhouse gases between polar

  • Higher methane emissions responding to the thawing of permafrost and an overall increase in wetlands will enhance radiative forcing

  • Components of the terrestrial cryosphere and hydrology are increasingly being affected by climate change. These changes will have cascading effects on key regional bio-physical systems and cause global climatic feedbacks

  •  In the Arctic, there has been increased Eurasian river discharge to the Arctic Ocean, and continued declines in the ice volume of Arctic and sub-Arctic glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet.

  • For several decades, surface air temperatures in the Arctic have warmed at approximately twice the global rate.

  • Observational data are limited, but precise measurements in boreholes indicate that permafrost temperatures in the Arctic rose markedly during the last 50 years  with rapid warming in Alaska Canada), Europe and Siberia.

  •  Reflectivity of snow, ice and vegetation: snow, ice play vital roles in the global climate system, through albedo. increasing evidence has emerged indicating a more rapid disappearance of snow and sea-ice cover in some areas (e.g.,Siberia, Alaska, the Greenland Sea), and consequent changes of albedo may be leading to further climate change.

  • Methane hydrates: significant amounts of methane hydrates are contained in sediments, especially on Arctic continental shelves. As these areas warm, this methane may be released, adding to the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere .

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What is missing

 

Here is what the IPCC 2007 assessment said about the state of Arctic climate science.

 

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News headline 30 Jan 2012 Climate Change in Arctic could Trigger Domino Effect Around the World

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Arctic feedbacks

 

The Arctic is the source catastrophically dangerous feed back loops, but these are all missing from the climate science projections of the incorrectly so called  ‘most likely’ global temperature increases and are missing from the IPCC mitigation calculations. We insist that climate science must include these feedbacks qualitatively and (in the most risk averse) quantitatively.

 

Global warming published science is maily science based on computer model projecting.  The extent to which the temperature increases as the concentrations of atmsopheric greenhouse gases increase is called the climate sensitivity and all the modeling depends on  this number.  Climate science is very much the science of feedbacks. The linear climate models cannot deal with sudden large positive feedbacks, because only one number for the climate sensitivty is used.  The fact is that climate sensivity in the situation of continuous atmospherioc GHG emissions  is a dynamic  increase- it increases with time (duration of warming) and with temperature increase.  

 

These models are still being developed and do not deal well with carbon cycle effects caused by temperature increases and atmospheric CO2  increases.

 

The Arctic is composed of interacting physical and biological systems- the ecosystems. The computer models are based on the physical systems. They have been proved to in error by many decades in projecting the rate of summer sea ice loss from global warming- a physical systems process. The models do not include the far more complex biological systems.

 

The climate change computer are experiments. The computer runs that produce the projections are called 'experiments'. The computer programming at the various climate science centers that are developed from advanced mathematics are different and give different results. But they are as good as the data that produces and there is a huge problem. The natural sciences of observing the Earth systems do not have enough reliable data for the computer models to be reliable.

 

Global warming published science is based on the computer model projecting results of global temperature increases caused by increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.The extent to which the temperature increases as the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases increase is called the climate sensitivity and all the modeling depends on  this number.

 

Climate science is very much the science of feedbacks. The linear climate models cannot deal with sudden large positive feedbacks, because only one number for the climate sensitivity is used. The fact is that climate sensitivity in the situation of continuous atmospheric GHG  is dynamic - it increases with time (of warming) and with temperature increase.  These computer climate model programs are still being developed and do not deal well with carbon cycle effects caused by temperature increases and atmospheric CO2  increases.

 

Arguably the most complete model in the world is the MIT Integrated global system model. The model gives the highest global temperature increase from GHG forcing to 2100. It does not however include the large Arctic feedbacks. The basic real world science of climate change in the biosphere is all about the large number of large positive feedbacks.  The largest carbon feedbacks (in terms of accelerating global warming more) are from warming peat lands (Arctic and tropical),  thawing permafrost and ocean methane hydrates. Models do not include the effect of the rapid meltdown of the Arctic sea ice.The basic real world science of climate change in the biosphere is all about the large number of large positive feedbacks.  The largest carbon feedbacks (in terms of accelerating global warming more) are from warming peat lands (Arctic and tropical),  thawing permafrost and ocean methane hydrates. Models do not include the effect of the rapid meltdown of the Arctic sea ice.

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        New Research

 

2014 Methane on the Rise—Again E. Nisbet, E Dlugokencky

 

2014 Sept NASA Arctic climate models - inadequate data.